Crypto Pullback Continuation: Run, Pullback to the 20 EMA, Trigger

Stage 1: the run

The page looks back from the run high, the highest close in the 21 days before today, and tries every window of 10 to 40 days ending there. It keeps the biggest qualifying run:

• Close up 15% or more from the window's first close to the run high.
• The run high is the highest close in the window.
• Close above the 20 EMA on at least 60% of the window's days.
• ADX 14 above 20 at the run high.
• Average volume during the run at least the 20-day average before it started.

Stage 2: the pullback

• Lasts 2 to 20 days after the run high.
• 3% to 25% deep, from the run high to the pullback's lowest low.
• The pullback low is within 5% of the 20 EMA on that day: the price came back to its average, not far through it.
• Average volume during the pullback is lower than during the run.
• RSI 14 stays at 35 or above on every day, and no day closes more than 5% below the 20 EMA.

Stage 3: the trigger

• The day closes above the pullback high (the highest high of the pullback days).
• Volume is above 1.2× the 20-day average.
• The close is in the top half of the day's range.

Only the first trigger after a run high counts. The trigger day is left out when the run high is found, so a strong trigger is not mistaken for the start of a new run.

When a setup fails

A live setup fails on the first day it closes more than 5% below the 20 EMA, its RSI falls under 35, or the pullback passes 20 days without a trigger. The Failed tab keeps a failure for five days, with the reason.

What is different on crypto

• Days are calendar days. A 10-to-40-day run and a 2-to-20-day pullback include weekends.
• 15% is a small run for an altcoin. In the August-to-September rally many pairs ran 40% to 100% (UNIUSDT 196% from 18 August); BTCUSDT ran 37%. The thresholds were set for NSE stocks, so on crypto the scan finds runs easily and is selective mainly at the trigger.
• Pullbacks are deep by NSE standards. With daily ATR at 5–12% for most altcoins, a 10–15% pullback is normal.

How these examples were worked out: signed-out visitors can open only the newest day on the page, so the earlier days below come from Unfluke's own scanner code run on Binance spot candles grouped into IST days. Unfluke's crypto archive is Binance data, and for 8 November 2026, the newest day the page showed when this was written, the two agree exactly. The page's own figures for the earlier days should be the same or very close.

SOLUSDT, Triggered Today on 21 September 2026

• Run: +50.0% over 33 days, from 16 August to a run-high close of 112.78 on 18 September.
• Pullback: three days, a low of 107.40 (4.8% below the run high), a high of 114.32, on lighter volume than the run.
• Trigger: on Monday 21 September SOL closed at 117.42, above the pullback high, on 1.93× average volume, near the day's high of 119.15. RSI 69.5, ADX 45.2, 12.5% above the 20 EMA.

What followed: SOL rose to 122.95 on 27 September, 4.7% above the trigger close, then drifted sideways for a week. On 8 October the whole market fell; SOL traded down to 105.71, below the pullback low, and closed at 107.85. Ten days after the trigger it was 0.8% higher.

Every trigger from 1 August to 8 November 2026

Six in 100 days across the 33 pairs. Moves are from the trigger close:

• ETHFIUSDT, 10 Sep (2.95× volume): −8.2% after 3 days, +4.3% after 10.
• FILUSDT, 13 Sep (2.99×, a Sunday, closing 16% above the pullback high): −21.6% after 3 days, −7.2% after 10; it later broke the pullback low.
• UNIUSDT, 17 Sep (1.66×): +14.6% after 3 days, +27.5% after 10.
• LTCUSDT, 18 Sep (1.36×): +8.6% after 3 days, +22.5% after 10.
• SOLUSDT, 21 Sep (1.93×): −0.1% after 3 days, +0.8% after 10.
• ADAUSDT, 5 Oct (2.31×): −13.6% after 3 days, −13.0% after 10; it failed on 8 October.

Two strong continuations, two that went nowhere and two that reversed hard. Six events prove nothing either way; they show the range of outcomes. One pattern is worth noting: the three triggers on the heaviest volume (FIL 2.99×, ETHFI 2.95×, ADA 2.31×) all fell 8% or more in the next three days, while the two on the lightest volume (LTC 1.36×, UNI 1.66×) were the two strong continuations.

8 October 2026: sixteen setups fail together

On 7 October, seven pairs were In Pullback, among them BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, XRPUSDT and INJUSDT. On Thursday 8 October BTC fell from 83,368 to 81,443 and the altcoins fell harder. That evening the Failed tab held 16 pairs, 14 of them failing that day, every one for the same reason: a close more than 5% below the 20 EMA. BTC itself, which fell less, stayed In Pullback.

On NSE, stocks in different sectors fail on different days. On crypto, setups fail together, because most altcoins follow BTC. A list with eight setups is often one bet on the market, eight times.

A step-by-step way to go from a row to a plan:

1. Start with BTCUSDT. If BTC is itself In Pullback or Failed, the altcoin setups are mostly the same trade. A trigger in an altcoin while BTC is below its 20 EMA is fighting the market.
2. Read the In Pullback tab as a watchlist. Note the pullback high (the trigger level) and the pullback low (where the idea is wrong) for each pair.
3. Judge the trigger day. Volume between about 1.2× and 2× with a close in the top half is the pattern as designed. A close far above the pullback high (FIL, 16%) is a chase; consider waiting for a retest.
4. Put the stop where the setup breaks. Below the pullback low, or a close more than 5% under the 20 EMA, whichever comes first. Size the position so that distance is an amount you accept losing.
5. Check the Failed tab. If many setups failed in the last few days, the market has turned and new triggers deserve more caution.
6. Check positioning. The Perp Basis Scanner shows whether the perpetual is at a large premium, which often comes with crowded longs.

Risk per trade - risk a small, fixed share of capital on any one idea. Crypto never closes, so a stop is the only exit while you sleep; with leverage, keep the liquidation price well beyond the stop. When selling options, prefer defined-risk structures (spreads, iron condors) over naked positions.

These are ideas to study, paper-trade and backtest, not recommendations or signals, and not a promise of any result. Every condition below can fail. Crypto trades around the clock and can move sharply at any hour; leverage and options can lose more than you expect, and past behaviour says nothing certain about the next session. Size, entries, exits and risk are your own decisions.

1. The trigger, with BTC on side

• Setup: a Triggered Today row, with BTCUSDT closing above its own 20 EMA the same day, and the trigger close no more than about 5% above the pullback high.
• Idea: the setup as designed, filtered for the market. Study entries at the close or on a retest of the pullback high the next day.
• Invalidation: a close below the pullback low.

2. Buy the retest, not the trigger

• Setup: a trigger day that closed far above the pullback high, or on more than 2.5× volume.
• Idea: in the August-to-November sample, the heaviest trigger days were the ones given back. Study waiting for the price to return to the pullback high and hold it on a daily close.

3. The Failed tab as a market gauge

• Setup: five or more setups failing on the same day.
• Idea: treat it as a signal about the market, not about the coins. Study standing aside from new long setups until BTC closes back above its 20 EMA.

Test before you trade - write the rules down exactly, test them on past data (see how to backtest an options strategy and the Option Simulator, which supports crypto), then paper-trade at least 20 occurrences before committing real money. Keep a journal of every trade, including the ones you skipped.

The tabs

• In Pullback (the default) - the run and the pullback both qualify today, and no trigger has fired yet. Sorted by run size.
• Triggered Today - the day closed through the pullback high on volume above 1.2×, in the top half of its range. Sorted by volume ratio.
• Failed - a failure in the last five days, with the reason and the date.

The filters

• Volatility - ATR 14 as a percentage of the price: Low under 1.5%, Mid 1.5–3%, High over 3%. Most altcoins are High.
• Date and Universe (All, Futures, Options) - for signed-in users.

The columns

• Run %, Run Days - the size and length of the run.
• Pullback %, Days In PB - how deep the pullback went from the run high, and how many days since the run high.
• 20 EMA - the close against its 20 EMA.
• Pullback High - the level a trigger must close above.
• Vol ratio, RSI, ADX - for the day.
• Status - In Pullback, Triggered Today or Failed, with the failure reason.
• 5 Days, Chart - the last five candles, and the daily chart.

Which pairs are read

• Live USDT pairs in Unfluke's crypto archive: 33 were scanned on 8 November 2026, from BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT to small pairs such as SOLVUSDT and GALAUSDT. A pair whose feed has stopped for three days is no longer live, and one that traded under US$100,000 in the day is left out as untraded.
• Flat pairs are left out by behaviour, not by name. A pair whose average daily range over 20 days is under 0.25% is a stablecoin in practice, and no momentum measure means anything on it.
• Liquidity first: a 20-day average turnover above US$500,000 (the day itself included) and the day's volume above 0.8× the average of the 20 days before it.
• No circuit rule. Crypto has no price bands, so nothing is left out for hitting one.
• No sector column and no "Indices" universe. The universe box offers All, Futures and Options: the pairs that have a perpetual future, or options, in Unfluke's archive.

What to keep in mind

Weekends empty the lists. Crypto trades on Saturday and Sunday, but far fewer people trade. From August to early November 2026, BTCUSDT's weekend volume was typically about half its 20-day average (a median of 0.48×), so most pairs fail the 0.8× volume rule. Across those 100 days a median of 21 pairs passed on a weekday and 6.5 on a weekend; on Sunday 8 November none did, and every momentum list was empty. An empty weekend page is the rule doing its job, not a fault.

The daily bars are rolled up from Unfluke's one-minute spot archive (Binance data) into IST days, 00:00 to 23:59. Volume is the coin's quantity; turnover is price × volume, in USDT. RSI 14 and ADX 14 use Wilder's smoothing, ATR is 14 days, and the EMAs are on the close, from the same library as the RSI and ADX scans, so a value here matches the value on those pages.

• Days are calendar days. Crypto has no holidays, so "10 to 40 days" or "the last 7 sessions" counts Saturdays and Sundays too. Seven sessions on crypto is one week; on NSE it is about a week and a half.
• The newest day can be unfinished. The daily bars are topped up during the day, so until 23:59 IST the newest day's range and volume are partial. A partial day usually fails the 0.8× volume rule, and its range looks narrower than it will end up. For a finished reading, use the previous day (signed-in users can pick the date).
• One exchange, spot only. Perpetual futures often trade several times the spot volume and are not counted. A move driven by futures liquidations shows up here only through the spot buying or selling it set off.
• A stablecoin can slip through. The flat test averages the daily range over 20 days. A few one-minute spikes on a stablecoin can lift that average over 0.25%: USDCUSDT had spikes of 2.1% on 21 October and about 0.9% on 26 and 27 October, and from 5 November 2026 it passed the test. Its ADX then reads above 80 and it can rank on Momentum Rank. If you see USDCUSDT or another stablecoin on a list, ignore it.

A setup that is In Pullback on Friday can disappear from the list on Saturday simply because the pair failed the weekend volume check. It has not failed; it is not being read that day.

For the day's ranking, read the Momentum Rank guide; for contraction setups, the NR4 & NR7 and Inside Bar guides; for trend strength alone, the ADX Scans guide. The NSE version is explained in the Pullback Continuation guide. Open the page at Watch List → Pullback Continuation (switch the market to Crypto), or sign up free to open the Market Terminal. Signed-out visitors see the default view of the newest day; signing in unlocks the tabs, filters, universe and date.